TI/Vanguard Brief: Why is mobile the next ecosystem?

Mike Gillam, MD, FACEP, 18 July 2016

At a previous TI/Vanguard Next conference in San Francisco, Benedict Evans of Andreesen Horowitz gave an overview of how the tech world is shifting from a PC centric world to mobile. Here are a few highlights from his talk.

There were 4x as many sales of mobile (2B devices) compared to PCs (0.5B) in the last year.

There are 3B iOS devices in the world.

We are moving towards a world where everyone owns a pocket supercomputer.

The next billion owners of cell phones are a different type of customer for tech.

The entry price of an Android phone is now $35.

By 2020 at least 80% of adults on earth will have a phone. Almost all of those will be smartphones.

Shoes and toothbrushes are perhaps the only equivalent to phones as things that everyone buys.

There is a shift today away from Microsoft. Microsoft’s near absence from mobile has ended its dominance. The scale advantage has moved away from PCs. All the innovation is occurring hardware and software on mobile.

A drone is a smartphone that flies.

Instead of PC components, now smartphone components are becoming the “LEGOs” for technology. You don’t need to be a smartphone company to build a smartphone. The smartphone supply chain is enabling the Internet of Things, satellites, Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality, wearables, connected cars, connected homes and more.

Our grandparents could count the electric motors in their homes.
Our parents could count the things they owned with a chip inside.
We can count our connected devices.
Our children….??fill in the blank.?? (…will count the chips inside them)

We are moving towards sensors everywhere and data everywhere.

A computer shouldn’t ask for anything it should know.  Sensors profoundly change what a computer can know. Every new sensor creates a new kind of business.

Our progress is creating new systems, not just new products.

  • Operating efficiency – know exactly how the product is operating all the time
  • Product design – know exactly how a product operates enables new systems
  • System design – understanding everything in system enables a new system.

CONTAINERIZATION is one example of how a new technology creates an entire new ecosystem. Containerization allowed us to unload ships faster. Then, it enabled us to build ships that were 10x bigger. Then it enabled the rise of inexpensive industries in countries like China because shipping costs became marginal.

Why are all the big tech companies looking at self-driving cars?

Mobile is a $300-$350B/year business
Cars are a $1.2 trillion/year business.

Cars are smartphones with wheels. 
With that in mind, you can begin to imagine what we will see next.

 

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